KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Bybit and Block Scholes report a shift in crypto derivatives sentiment as Bitcoin reaches a two-month high.
- Increased open interest in perpetual futures suggests traders are positioning for a continued rally.
- Options markets show a neutral skew, indicating recalibrated market expectations despite price increases.
- Spot market dynamics and ETF inflows support Bitcoin and Ether prices, with significant on-chain staking for Ether.
Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released a new report in collaboration with Block Scholes, highlighting a significant shift in crypto derivatives sentiment. The report, titled Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics, reveals that Bitcoin’s recent rise to a two-month high is prompting changes in market dynamics.
The analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s breakout into the upper $90,000 range has coincided with increased open interest in perpetual futures across major digital assets. This suggests that traders are positioning for a potential continuation of the rally. Additionally, funding rates for several altcoins have risen, reflecting an improved risk appetite among investors.
Options markets are also experiencing adjustments. The volatility smiles for short-dated Bitcoin and Ether options have shifted toward a neutral skew, moving away from a previously bearish bias. Despite the sharp spot price increase, implied volatility has remained relatively stable, indicating that markets are recalibrating expectations rather than anticipating immediate turbulence.
Impact on Futures and Options Markets
The report highlights that futures term structures for Bitcoin and Ether have clustered at similar levels, indicating consistent pricing of risk across different maturities. This consistency suggests a more stable outlook for these assets in the derivatives markets.
Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Bybit Learn, commented on the resilience of cryptocurrencies amid geopolitical challenges in early 2026. He noted that recent gains align with Bybit’s 2026 Bitcoin target of $150,000, although the path forward may be marked by volatility due to geopolitical and U.S. monetary policy risks.
Spot Market Dynamics and Future Outlook
Spot market dynamics continue to support Bitcoin and Ether prices. Year-to-date inflows into Bitcoin and Ether spot exchange-traded funds remain positive, reinforcing demand during the latest breakout. Ether has also benefited from on-chain factors, with approximately 30 percent of its circulating supply now staked, tightening the available supply.
The report identifies the $94,000 to $96,000 price region as a critical trigger for sentiment changes in derivatives markets. A previous move to this range briefly shifted options skews to neutral before reversing. The latest breakout has again altered positioning, though analysts suggest that a sustained move above these levels may be necessary for a more decisively bullish options skew to emerge.
The full Bybit x Block Scholes report, which provides detailed analysis of spot, futures, and options markets, is available for download here.
Why This Matters: Impact, Industry Trends & Expert Insights
Bitcoin’s recent rally to a two-month high has led to noticeable changes in the sentiment within the crypto derivatives market, as highlighted by a new report from Bybit and Block Scholes.
A Deribit report highlights that recent trends in crypto derivatives include declining implied volatility for BTC and ETH options and positive perpetual swap funding rates, indicating a bullish exposure demand. This aligns with the news event, where the Bitcoin rally has prompted traders to adjust their positions in anticipation of continued market momentum.
A Zerocap report notes that higher basis rates signal bullish yield expectations for BTC and ETH, alongside rebuilding futures leverage. This supports the significance of the news event as it reflects a shift towards a more optimistic outlook in the derivatives market, despite ongoing caution among options traders.
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